At year end 2010, the economy is stronger than originally thought and forecasts are being revised upward says the U.S. Travel Association in the January issue of U.S. Travel Outlook. Retail spending increased in late 2010, according to the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, and the National Retail Federation forecasted that holiday spending would be up 3.3 percent over 2009. Employment news has also been more positive in the last weeks. The week ending Dec. 25 marked the fewest new claims for unemployment since the summer of 2008.
Even with the positive economic news, there are still areas of concern. The business sector still remains hesitant to make new investments or resume hiring despite healthy profits and cash flow. The increasing price of oil is also of great concern, particularly to the travel industry, and could approach 2008 levels, thus reducing Americans’ disposable income and spending. According to the latest Conference Board report, there is still weakness in consumers’ mood and the Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in November but decreased slightly in December.
To balance the bad with the good though, there is new Gallup research to show that Americans are slightly more optimistic about 2011. Fifty-eight percent of Americans say that 2011 will be better than 2010. Americans living in the East and Midwest are more optimistic than those living in the South and West.
International air travel slowed in November, but was still up 8.2 percent from a year ago. Through November 2010, air traffic growth was at 8.5 percent from 2009. Domestic air traffic was up 5.8 percent in November from 2009, though a recent study by the U.S. Travel Association revealed that the current air travel security screenings are damaging the U.S. travel industry, as well as the U.S. economy.
The U.S. lodging industry continues to improve according to Smith Travel Research. November 2010 results were that demand was up 10.5 percent and ADR was up 2.5 percent from a year ago. (North Carolina results can be found at www.nccommerce.com/tourism/research.) According to Mark Lomanno, STR’s president, the room rate growth is the most encouraging lodging news industry-wide and this trend bodes well for 2011. The latest Rubicon Perspective also indicates that room rates are finally approaching pre-recession levels and that transient and business demand continue to lead the way. PKF has amended its forecast for year-end 2010 to a growth of almost 8 percent in lodging demand and a RevPAR growth of 5.6 percent. The outlook for 2011 has also improved (demand +3.3 percent and RevPAR +6.3 percent).
Leisure travel is expected to perform well in 2011. The U.S. Travel Association predicts an increased in travel volume of about 1.6 percent. Research on booking lead times indicates that travelers booking within four weeks of travel are down to 23 percent (from 30 percent). It is thought that 2011 may be the last year where travel deals and bargains are plenty, as travel suppliers begin to raise rates and fares.
International travel has rebounded strongly and is world travel volume is expect to have risen 5 percent in 2010. In the U.S., 45.3 million international visitors traveled to the U.S. during the first nine months of 2010, according to the U.S. Dept. of Commerce (up 11 percent from 2009). 2011 is promising in terms of international arrivals to the U.S. particularly as the Corporation for Travel Promotion begins its work in earnest.
For more information on the most recent U.S. Travel Outlook, visit www.ustravel.org/sites/default/files/page/2009/09/Jan2011_public.html.
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